A major international organisation has downgraded its forecasts for UK economic growth over the next two years, amid warnings of the uncertainty created by the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut its prediction for UK GDP growth in 2018 from 1.4% in May to 1.3% now, and for 2019 from 1.3% to 1.2%.And the body’s chief economist said it was “vital” for a Brexit deal to be struck which maintains the closest possible links between the UK and the European Union.The forecasts in the OECD’s Interim Economic Outlook see Britain lagging significantly behind the eurozone, with single currency area GDP slated to grow by 2% this year and 1.9% in 2019. But the report warns of a global slowdown amid uncertainties over political instability and protectionist trade policies.Already, tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s USA and China have contributed to global trade slowing “markedly” … [Read more...] about OECD downgrades UK growth forecast amid concern over no-deal Brexit
Uk gdp forecast
BCC Downgrades UK GDP Growth Forecast Due to ‘Mounting Uncertainty’ Over Brexit
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has downgraded various economic forecasts for Britain to reflect the current political climate, adjusting its forecast for growth in UK gross domestic product (GDP) for 2018 from 1.3 percent to 1.1 percent. Furthermore, the trade body downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 1.3 percent, while opting not to revise its 2020 forecast. READ MORE: 'People Must Get a Final Say': London Mayor Calls for Another Brexit Vote © AP Photo / PRNewsFoto/Rail Europe, Inc.London Downplays France's Warning to Block Planes, Trains From UK in Case of No-Deal BrexitHighlighting the poor economic outlook on Monday, the BCC said, "Our latest forecast implies that by 2020 the UK economy will have experienced its second weakest decade of average annual GDP growth on record.” Moreover, the body said it expects other aspects of the UK economy to also perform poorly, … [Read more...] about BCC Downgrades UK GDP Growth Forecast Due to ‘Mounting Uncertainty’ Over Brexit
UK GDP growth recovers in May boost to Bank of England hawks
The British economy did not accelerate in the three months to May compared to the first quarter, according to monthly data released for the first time by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – although a bounceback during the month of May itself will relieve Bank of England hawks hoping to raise interest rates. UK GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months to May, the same pace as the first three months of the year. However, the new monthly GDP estimate – which the government's statisticians caution is a more volatile measure – showed growth of 0.3 per cent during the month, up from 0.2 per cent in April, with the ONS crediting the royal wedding and warmer weather for a boost to retailers in particular. Read more: Sterling jumps after Carney expresses 'greater confidence' in UK economy The weak trend is down to an unusually weak March, in which the economy did not expand at all, owing in part to bad weather. The new GDP figures have taken on an even more … [Read more...] about UK GDP growth recovers in May boost to Bank of England hawks
Brexit has already hit UK GDP by up to £40bn, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says
Mark Carney has re-iterated the view of the Bank of England that the vote for Brexit has already knocked about 2 per cent off the size of the UK economy, a sum equivalent to around £40bn. Giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, Mr Carney said that the economy has underperformed the Bank’s pre-referendum forecasts and that the Leave vote, which prompted a record one-day fall in sterling, was the culprit. “If you look at where the economy is today, relative to that forecast, it’s more than 1 percent below where it was despite very large stimulus provided by the Bank of England, a fiscal easing by the government and global and European economies, which are much much stronger than they were previously,” he said. “If you adjust for those factors, the economy is about one and three-quarters – one and half, one and three-quarters, up to two percent lower than it would have been.” The Governor first estimated in January, … [Read more...] about Brexit has already hit UK GDP by up to £40bn, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says
Bad weather could reduce UK GDP growth – but effects should only be temporary says PwC
While the UK is currently enjoying the start of a hotter spell, upcoming economic data will still be feeling the effects of the recent cold snap, according to the latest forecasts. GDP growth could fall as low as 0.2 per cent for the first quarter, down from 0.4 per cent at the end of last year, according to analysis by accountants PwC. The adverse weather in February and March – nicknamed the Beast from the East – caused large parts of the economy to grind to a halt after heavy snowfalls followed by flooding. Read more: Return to growth for real wages on cards after year of struggle John Hawksworth, PwC's chief economist, said: “The last time we had such significant snowfalls, in December 2010, there was a marked dip in quarterly UK GDP growth. Construction output fell sharply and retail and leisure spending was hit in the run up to Christmas. This was only partly offset by a sharp rise in energy consumption for heating." However, the this year's freeze should have … [Read more...] about Bad weather could reduce UK GDP growth – but effects should only be temporary says PwC