The Reserve Bank's monetary policy statement on Thursday will be the main economic event of the week but there are other economic indicators worth noting. The July performance in manufacturing index (PMI) is due out on Friday, along with electronic cards transactions for July. BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said yesterday the manufacturing index would be most important to him and his colleagues. In June, the PMI dropped to 52.8, 0.6 below its long-term average. The PMI and Performance in Services Index had been indicating the real economy continued to perform better than the confidence indicators suggested would be the case. ``We are hopeful they continue to do so. But if this is to be the case, we will need the PMI to remain at or above current levels. We will watch this indicator with substantial interest.'' The card transactions data was the first month affected by the fiscal easing affecting households, he said. BNZ was forecasting a 0.5% increase in spending but acknowledged … [Read more...] about Reserve Bank monetary policy statement the main event
Fiscal policy affects the economy
In April, the Scottish government reluctantly admitted that the economy north of the border grew by just 0.3 per cent in GDP in the last quarter of 2017. A political battle over the economy has been raging for some time in Scotland; the SNP blames Westminster, austerity and Brexit for underwhelming growth. Holyrood opposition, meanwhile, blames the SNP and accuses the party of placing Scotland’s economy in jeopardy. The debate raises a key question: to what extent is Scotland’s economic trajectory tied up with that of the wider UK’s? Just how much power does the SNP hold to determine the economic course of the nation? UK GDP grew by 1.8 per cent in 2017; within that overall figure, Scotland’s economy grew by 0.8 per cent. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has warned that Scotland is facing five more years of “subdued growth”, so who is to blame? Russell Gunson, head of IPPR in Scotland, says that there are some … [Read more...] about ConsumerBusinessSpotlightConsumerBusinessSpotlightConsumerBusinessSpotlightConsumerBusinessSpotlightConsumerBusinessSpotlight Will a Scottish National Investment Bank grow the economy?
The Turkish lira has started to decouple from other emerging market currencies following the strong messages conveyed during the 13 hours of meetings Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Governor Murat Çetinkaya held on Tuesday at the London office of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Top economic officials met more than 100 investors in London and emphasized Turkey's determination to rebalance the economy, reduce inflation and current account deficit, and the country's openness to business. Following the meetings, the U.S. dollar retreated by 2.15 percent and was trading at TL 4.44 at 3:21 p.m. local time while the euro also fell by nearly one percent to TL 5.18. Şimşek and Çetinkaya's visit to London came after the CBRT raised the late liquidity window, the current funding tool, by 300 basis points at an emergency meeting on May 23 and the bank's simplification decision on Monday, which has been observed to … [Read more...] about Pressure on Turkish lira recedes as investors persuaded by sound monetary, fiscal policies
Since 2001 the following rule has guided withdrawals from the Fund (handlingsregelen): Transfers from the Fund to the central government budget shall, over time, follow the expected real return on the Fund. Significant emphasis is placed on evening out economic fluctuations to contribute to sound capacity utilisation and low unemployment. At the inception of the fiscal rule, the expected real rate of return of the Government Pension Fund Global was set at 4 percent. Based on analysis from the Thøgersen commission, the Mork commission, and Norges Bank, the expected real rate of return was reduced to 3 percent in the spring of 2017. The fiscal policy framework ensures preserving the real value of the Fund for the benefit of future generations. At the same time, the Fund and the fiscal rule insulates the budget from short-term fluctuations in petroleum revenue, and leaves space for fiscal policy to counteract economic downturns. In the event of large movements in the value of the … [Read more...] about The Norwegian Fiscal Policy Framework
Kristian Rouz — Several central banks across the developed nations have been tightening their interest rate policies, taking steps to cut balance sheets, and curb bond buyouts, suggesting the improvements in economic growth prospects would bring back the normal pace of inflationary GDP growth. However, despite the positive inflationary developments in the US, the Eurozone, the UK, Russia, and even Japan, the global threat of stifling deflationary stagnation across major economies still lingers. READ MORE: US Tariffs to Have Limited Effect on China's GDP Growth, Exports — Moody's This is due to the still-tepid consumer demand, high levels of household indebtedness, slow growth in domestic non-financial sector investment, and the still-tight fiscal policies in the aforementioned economies. Against such a backdrop, several central banks have been testing unconventional new monetary … [Read more...] about Despite Int’l Central Bank Policy Normalization, Deflationary Pressures Persist