Get our daily newsletterUpgrade your inbox and get our Daily Dispatch and Editor's Picks. REGARDLESS OF WHAT they tell you, traders struggle to explain short-term fluctuations in the value of currencies. Recently, however, the pound has become an exception. Every time it seems more likely that Britain will crash out of the EU without a deal, sterling falls against the dollar. The strength of this link can be measured statistically, thanks to a helpful proxy for the odds of no-deal. On January 16th Betfair, a bookmaker, opened a market for wagers on whether Britain would crash out by March 29th, the original Brexit deadline. Punters have bet £3.6m ($4.75m). On March 21st the EU extended this deadline, causing the chances of no-deal by the end of March to fall to near zero. But for the 64 days between the opening of the market and the granting of the extension, the odds seemed to mirror the exchange rate. For each ten-percentage-point rise in the probability of no-deal, the pound … [Read more...] about A no-deal Brexit would send sterling to its lowest level since 1985
Brexit no deal odds
John Bercow’s dramatic ruling that Theresa May cannot hold another vote on her Brexit agreement has undoubtedly caused a political storm. But has it made a no-deal exit from the European Union more likely? Several Tory Eurosceptics think so, as does Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader who is setting up a new Brexit Party. They welcomed the speaker’s edict, hoping that denying May a third vote means the UK could still leave without a deal at 11pm on 29 March. We’ll tell you what’s true. You can form your own view. From 15p €0.18 $0.18 USD 0.27 a day, more exclusives, analysis and extras. Subscribe now True, this currently remains the legal default position, as set out in the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018 – and it can be changed only by new legislation. With time undeniably running out Bercow’s decision does mean that May has even less of it at her disposal. However, the Eurosceptics are clutching at a very thin … [Read more...] about Has John Bercow’s controversial Brexit ruling made a no-deal departure from the EU more likely?
(Reuters) - The risk that Britain will crash out of the EU without an agreement on March 29 has receded further this week, some banks and asset managers say, citing the UK parliament’s resounding vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit. At the end of January, banks informally canvassed by Reuters for their forecasts saw the “no-deal exit” probability as low but rising. Some of those banks have since revised down that risk. Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another crushing defeat in parliament for her EU divorce deal this week. Since then, lawmakers have passed a non-binding motion ruling out a no-deal exit, and will now vote to seek to delay Britain’s departure beyond the March 29 deadline. That expectation has helped sterling strengthen - to nine-month highs against the dollar and 22-month peaks against the euro. For an interactive version of the chart below, click here tmsnrt.rs/2Ey1n4s: Below are the views from a selection of investment banks and asset … [Read more...] about Risk of no-deal Brexit recedes further, some banks say
Everyone is getting over-excited. Calm down. The idea that Theresa May will seize victory from the jaws of humiliation with her constitutionally dubious decision to put her Brexit deal to a vote for a record-breaking third time next week is highly questionable. First even if the Attorney General admits with the full magisterial regret, for which he is notorious, that he stupidly excused from his initial interpretation of the palimpsested backstop that - after all - there is a unilateral escape route from the backstop via the Vienna Convention, this would be just one hired lawyer’s opinion, and an oddly convenient one at that. It won’t change all Brexiters’ minds. And as Steve Baker, their remorselessly rational leader said on my show last night, he won’t be bullied or bribed by the PM to change his mind and back her deal, even faced with the threat from her that Brexit could be delayed until long after we’re all dead. Sorry, this content isn't available … [Read more...] about Why no-deal is NOT off the table, yet
0 Have your say Sterling shot higher after Parliament voted resoundingly against leaving the European Union in 15 days’ time without a transition agreement. Parliament voted against the risk of a “no-deal” Brexit, 24 hours after a second defeat for Prime Minister Theresa May’s divorce agreement left Britain heading into the unknown.MPs will vote again today on delaying Britain’s EU departure beyond March 29.The pound strengthened on hopes of a delayed Brexit, a move which investors said could increase May’s chances of getting her deal with the EU through parliament or lead to Brexit being called off altogether if a second referendum is held.“No to no-deal (on 29 March)! On reflection... a big win for the pound. A majority in parliament are choosing economic rationale over party politics and that reduces the odds of a disorderly Brexit,” said Viraj Patel, a currency strategist at Arkera, a financial technology … [Read more...] about Sterling leaps after MPs vote to rule out No Deal Brexit