Get our daily newsletterUpgrade your inbox and get our Daily Dispatch and Editor's Picks. REGARDLESS OF WHAT they tell you, traders struggle to explain short-term fluctuations in the value of currencies. Recently, however, the pound has become an exception. Every time it seems more likely that Britain will crash out of the EU without a deal, sterling falls against the dollar. The strength of this link can be measured statistically, thanks to a helpful proxy for the odds of no-deal. On January 16th Betfair, a bookmaker, opened a market for wagers on whether Britain would crash out by March 29th, the original Brexit deadline. Punters have bet £3.6m ($4.75m). On March 21st the EU extended this deadline, causing the chances of no-deal by the end of March to fall to near zero. But for the 64 days between the opening of the market and the granting of the extension, the odds seemed to mirror the exchange rate. For each ten-percentage-point rise in the probability of no-deal, the pound … [Read more...] about A no-deal Brexit would send sterling to its lowest level since 1985
Brexit no deal odds
The last time Holyrood sat down with the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Economy, in the summer, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit was being treated as highly improbable. Theresa May was still deep in negotiations with the EU and, although it was still unclear what sort of shape the withdrawal agreement might take, there was a general consensus that some sort of deal, which could win support from both MPs and EU states, would exist by the end of the year. In the time since, however, with Theresa May facing a series of humiliating defeats, the odds seem to have shifted. Put simply, the prospect of a no-deal exit from the EU is looking less and less outlandish. As a result, the Scottish Government is increasingly worried, and preparations for no deal have stepped up. As Ewing puts it: “We hope for the best but we have to prepare for the worst.” Ministers meet every Thursday through the Scottish Government’s resilience sub-committee, known as SGoR and chaired by the Deputy … [Read more...] about Interview: Fergus Ewing on the prospect of a no-deal brexit
On LBC Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative MP and chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a harder Brexit, has just quoted the Guardian approvingly (perhaps a first). He cited some polling quoted in today’s main Brexit story. Rees-Mogg said that the idea of voters favour a no-deal Brexit might be alarming to the Guardian, but that to many people there was nothing odd about this at all. When LBC’s Nick Ferrari put it to him that, outside London, people were far less worried about a no-deal Brexit than some Westminster politicians, Rees-Mogg agreed. … [Read more...] about Brexit: No deal will be ‘absolute disaster’ says business minister, as May prepares to address MPs
AS bookmakers shorten the odds on a second referendum, it also looks increasingly likely that a no-deal Brexit might also be on the cards. Here’s the latest. What are the latest no-deal Brexit odds? The odds on a no-deal Brexit being agreed before April 1, 2019 are as follows: Labrokes: 4/1 Coral: 4/1 Smarkets: 5/2 What are the other situations you can bet on? The odds of Theresa May still being Prime Minister when the UK says goodbye to the EU are currently 1/2 with Betfair. Betfair is also offering 5/6 odds on the UK to applying to re-join the EU by 2027. Coral have slashed the odds of a re-run of the 2016 referendum to just 5-4. William Hill have given the possibility of a second referendum more than a 50 per cent chance of happening – the bookmaker is offering odds of 8/11 on another EU vote. The bookie has also lengthened odds that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will be approved by Parliament before 31 March to 5/2. What is a no-deal Brexit? A no-deal … [Read more...] about What are the latest no-deal Brexit odds and will there be a second referendum?
Northern Ireland By Jayne McCormack BBC News NI Political Reporter 18 December 2018 Share this with Facebook Share this with Messenger Share this with Twitter Share this with Email Share this with Facebook Share this with WhatsApp Share this with Messenger Share this with Twitter Share Share this with These are external links and will open in a new window Email Share this with Email Facebook Share this with Facebook Messenger Share this with Messenger Messenger Share this with Messenger Twitter Share this with Twitter Pinterest Share this with Pinterest WhatsApp Share this with WhatsApp LinkedIn Share this with LinkedIn Copy this link https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46611812 Read more about sharing. These are external links and will open in a new window Close share panel Related TopicsBrexit The government is playing a "high-risk … [Read more...] about ‘Risky strategy’ to up no-deal Brexit plans