LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) – OPEC wil likely revise down its 2022 oil demand growth forecast on Monday, two OPEC+ sources said, as the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant puts the speed of a recovery in fuel use in doubt.
On Sept. 1, separate sources said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, increased its 2022 oil demand forecast to 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.28 million bpd previously.
The new figure was seen as optimistic by some in the group, likely prompting revisions, the two OPEC+ sources said. OPEC is scheduled to make its latest supply and demand forecasts public in a report on Monday.
“OPEC may review the figures again for the upcoming monthly report,” one of the sources said, declining to be named.
Governments, companies and traders are closely monitoring the speed that oil demand recovers after crashing in 2020. A slower return could weigh on prices and bolster the view that the impact of pandemic may affect consumption patterns for longer or permanently.
“Recent forecasts for oil demand are looking softer,” said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM in a report. “Growth for the near- to medium-term outlook is being progressively downgraded due to the resurgence of COVID-19, particularly in Asia.”
Brennock cited figures from the U.S. government’s forecaster, the Energy Information Administration, which said in its latest outlook on Sept. 8 oil demand would surpass 100 million bpd in the second quarter of 2022.
A month earlier, the EIA expected that milestone to be reached in the fourth quarter of 2021.
OPEC currently has the highest demand growth figures among the three main oil forecasting agencies – itself, the EIA and the International Energy Agency, an adviser to consuming nations which issues its latest monthly report on Tuesday.
In 2021, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 5.95 million bpd, higher than the IEA figure of 5.3 million bpd and the EIA forecast of 5 million bpd.
For OPEC’s 2021 oil demand growth forecast to be met, world oil demand needs to average 99.82 million bpd in the fourth quarter – almost 1 million bpd higher than the IEA’s fourth-quarter projection.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
- OPEC chief, in upbeat oil outlook, sees oil stocks falling further
- Despite uncertainties, OPEC sticks to forecast of oil demand surge in second half
- OPEC+ meeting, US-Iran talks, demand recovery to decide crude oil prices
- Oil prices climb as demand outlook improves, supplies tighten
- Energy giants face end of an era as peak oil demand dries up
- Oil bulls take charge as demand outlook improves, Brent up a fifth day
- OPEC Sees Latest COVID-19 Surge Hitting Oil Demand
- BP's Forecasts Peak Oil Demand
- Oil trims gains, but heads for third weekly rise on demand recovery
- Oil hits new multi-year highs; investors eye Iran nuclear talks this week
- The oil market needs central bank-style guidance from Saudi Arabia
- Oil rises as threat of immediate Iran supply recedes
- Oil hits two-year highs on rising demand expectations
- Crude oil rises on upbeat growth outlook, jumps 2.67% so far this week
- Insight- India’s Covid crisis threatens a global oil recovery
- Commodity Price Inflation Won’t Affect Oil Prices (Much)
- Crude oil price rises as threat of immediate Iran supply recedes
- Crude oil futures within striking distance of fresh 52-week high; Brent nears $74 per barrel
- Can oil prices keep rising in 2021?
- Oil dips, but heads for third weekly rise on demand recovery
OPEC set to revise down 'optimistic' oil demand outlook -sources have 547 words, post on www.reuters.com at September 10, 2021. This is cached page on Europe Breaking News. If you want remove this page, please contact us.