US Election: Cafaro warns against trusting polls after 2016 ‘error’
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The US election is just three weeks away. It is panning out to be one of the country’s most important elections in recent history. The incumbent, President Trump , is hoping to secure a second term while his main opponent, the Democrat’s Joe Biden , looks to tip the balance in his favour.
Mr Biden has surged ahead in many polls.
He continues to lead Mr Trump by as much as 17 points in national polls.
The President acknowledged his concern during his latest rally appearance in Iowa on Wednesday, telling the crowd: “For me to only be up six (in Iowa), I’m a little bit concerned, I’ll tell you that.”
Mr Trump, in what appeared to be a further sign of desperation, later tweeted voters in the Democratic safe state of California: "WHAT THE HELL DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE?" in voting for him.
US election 2020: Analysts have warned over trusting polls following the 2016 result (Image: GETTY)
Trump rally: The President attended his first rallies since contracting coronavirus this week (Image: GETTY)
His former challenger, Hilary Clinton, in late October 2016 was so far ahead of him in polls, she said she “I don’t even think about responding to him anymore”.
Her quip came after she was asked about Mr Trump’s charge that US media outlets were in cahoots with her presidential campaign.
At the time, an ABC News/Washington Post poll, which corroborated the findings of a study published by the Monmouth University Polling Institute, showed Mrs Clinton to be leading Mr Trump 50 percent to 38 percent in a four-way contest with two minor party candidates.
Her points surged past Mr Trump – to 20 – following the allegations that surfaced over Mr Trump sexually harassing multiple women.
Joe Biden: The Democrat nomination is on the campaign trail with social distancing enforced (Image: GETTY)
Yet, despite Mrs Clinton appearing to have already secured the ballot, Mr Trump went to win more votes through the Electoral College system.
It has led pollsters and political analysts to agree that it is not too late for Mr Trump to overcome his poll deficit and win the US election.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told The Sunday Telegraph: "While there are fewer persuadable voters than four years ago, there are enough of them with over two months to go that Trump could thread the needle again to win the Electoral College.”
There are many fundamental issues on which November’s election rests on, they say.
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Hilary Clinton: Clinton was ahead in most polls in the run-up to the 2016 election yet lost (Image: GETTY)
US politics: Trump trails Biden in most polls although could gain ground on ‘fundamental’ issues (Image: GETTY)
One is the coronavirus pandemic , and whether the American people are happy with the way in which the President and his administration has dealt with the crisis.
There have so far been over eight million confirmed cases, with over 220,000 deaths.
The economy is also a huge issue.
Polls suggest US voters trust Mr Trump more than Mr Biden to rebuild the US’ economy following crippling fallout.
November 3: The key dates in the upcoming election (Image: Express Newspapers)
This is likely because of the President’s business history.
According to a Newsweek/Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, 33 percent of registered voters believe the economy was the issue most likely to decide how they would vote.
Millions of US citizens have found themselves out of work, with unemployment rates at the highest levels since the Great Depression .
Despite this, analysts have said the last two months of polling of any election are more often than not indicative of how the result will pan out.
Democrat Party: Some are predicting a landslide victory for Biden (Image: GETTY)
Currently, some 57 percent of likely voters intend to vote for Mr Biden, while 40 percent say they will vote for Mr Trump.
The results are just short of the popular vote that Ronald Reagan enjoyed in his second landslide victory in 1984.
However, four years later, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis led George HW Bush by 17 points only to suffer defeat.
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