What a difference two percentage points makes. YouGov’s second and much-hyped constituency-by-constituency poll puts the Conservatives unchanged on 43% and Labour on 34%, up two points on its previous effort a fortnight before. The result is that Boris Johnson’s notional majority has been cut from 68 to 28 as his party’s seat count falls by 20 to 339 and Labour’s improves by the same amount to 231. The SNP takes 41 and the Liberal Democrats 15. All this reflects how sensitive the British political system is to slight variations in voting patterns, which is why the Conservatives are so nervous about how the party leader responds to a story about a young child having to sleep on a hospital floor. After all, while the Tories remain favourites, a hung parliament cannot be ruled out. The method used, the so-called MRP (which stands for a modelling technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification), models a result for each constituency by creating a profile for how various demographic groups might vote, based on a large sample of 100,000 interviews conducted over the previous six days. First time around, the MRP was conducted after the Conservatives had largely squeezed out the Brexit party, but… Read full this story
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