Japanese Prime Minister Abe canceled a scheduled visit to Tehran next week, apparently in response to pressure from the US on countries around the world to isolate Iran and squeeze its oil exports, Japan’s Kyodo News cited government sources as saying on Wednesday.
However, Motosada Matano, a spokesman for Abe, told Reuters news agency nothing had been decided about the PM’s overseas travel plans.
According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency (MNA), Bahram Ghasemi, a foreign ministry spokesman, said Abe’s Iran visit was never on the agenda.
Iranian media reported in late June that Abe would travel to Tehran in mid-July for talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The visit would have been the first to Iran by a Japanese leader since Takeo Fukuda met the Shah in 1978.
Tehran appeared to be pleased that Abe would be stopping in Iran as part of a longer diplomatic mission to the Middle East and Europe, with the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) announcing that the Japanese leader would express his support for the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was signed in 2015 under the US administration of President Barack Obama.
‘Defective’ agreement
In May, President Donald Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the agreement , describing it as “defective.”
“The deal is defective at its core,” Trump said. “If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen. In just a short period of time, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapon.”
The other signatories to the deal – Germany, Britain, France, Russia, China and the European Union – have remained committed to the agreement and have attempted to get the Iranian and American governments to at least return to talks. Trump has instead increased pressure on his allies and demanded that they halt purchases of oil from Tehran.
Read more: Can Europe rescue Iran as Trump’s sanctions loom?
That puts Japan in a very difficult position.
During his visit, Abe was expected to discuss trade with his Iranian counterpart, including oil. Tokyo has for decades considered Iran to be an important source of energy, an attitude that remains even though Iran now only provides 5 percent of the total annual shipments of oil to Japan, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
With no fossil fuels of its own, Japan was effectively completely reliant on imports of oil and gas until it began to develop its own nuclear energy sector and, more recently, renewable energy sources. Yet Tokyo lives in fear of a major interruption to its energy supply – such as the one happened after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that destroyed the Fukushima nuclear plant and forced the government to mothball every one of the nation’s reactors for safety checks.
Read more: Iran deal: The European Union’s ugly options
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
The deal breaker
President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America’s “national interest.” The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Slap in the face
Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration’s withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Iran scrap ‘voluntary commitments’
A year to the day after Trump’s announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain “voluntary commitments.” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran’s oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Response to US pressure
The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a “clear unmistakable message.” Iran said it took action because the European Union and others “did not have the power to resist US pressure.”
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
A triumph of diplomacy
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Compliance and verification
The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran’s compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Obama’s achievement
The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the “worst deal ever.” The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn’t address other unrelated issues such as Iran’s ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for “terrorist” groups and human rights.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Iranians approved
The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump’s threats.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
The opponents
After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs’ assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.
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Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
Who’s left?
The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.
Security guarantees
Abe has to balance that, however, against the security guarantees that Washington provides. And in this instance, security has won out in the equation – although Tokyo did attempt to cover up the prime minister’s back-tracking by suggesting that the timing of the visit was now “difficult.”
“It was a pragmatic decision by the leader of a country that is in a particularly vulnerable geographic position in East Asia and experiencing significant friction with its immediate neighbors,” said Jun Okumura, an international relations analyst with the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs.
“Japan cannot afford to have friction with the US simply because of the threat that is posed by North Korea and, more importantly and over the longer term, China,” he told DW.
Okumura also played down criticism that Abe’s decision showed him to be a “lap-dog” to the US president.
“I would not say that Japan is a lap-dog to anyone; I rather think that Abe is simply trying to stay out of the dog house,” Okumura said.
Awkward position
Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at the Tokyo Campus of Temple University, agrees that Japan is in a precarious geopolitical position – but he points out that Abe might be making a mistake if he believes that Trump will come to Japan’s aid should a crisis erupt in Northeast Asia.
Read more: Opinion: United States leaves Japan in cold on North Korea
“Japan is in an awkward position in that it depends on the US for its security umbrella, although Trump seems to miss no opportunity to pull the rug from beneath Abe and diplomatically embarrass him,” Kingston told DW.
“Despite that, Abe seems to keep running after him although, in truth, there is not a lot he can do because he doesn’t get to choose the president. For Abe, it is more important to maintain Japan’s security relationship and solidarity with the US,” he added.
The Japanese government’s announcement came just days before Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, is due to arrive in Tokyo for talks after visiting North Korea.
Read more: North Korea: US, Japan agree that ‘all options’ are on the table
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