On October 11, 2007 I wrote an article in which I suggested that the credit crunch would be far worse than most people believed and that the impact on the stock market, the financial system, economic vitality and inflation could be significant. I updated that article November 30th when I realized that the stresses that were evident in October had grown more severe and that 2008 could be a very rough ride. Now it is clear that the economy is slowing dramatically and many observers feel that we are headed into, or may already be in, a recession. The question is no longer if the economy is going to be slow in 2008, but how slow is it going to get.The credit crunch has lost its crisis atmosphere but many sectors of the credit markets remain paralyzed. We know about the impact on housing and related industries. But most people are only beginning to understand how the paralysis is affecting consumers in areas other than real estate. Nowhere is this understanding more apparent than in the performance of the equity markets over the past two weeks where traders who blindly ignored the warning signs for months suddenly see that the… Read full this story
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